Spain?s economy has struggled with very high unemployment rates as a result of the Eurozone banking crisis. The following data show the annual unemployment rate over a nine-year period. These data can also be found in the Excel file Spain unemployment.xlsx.

a. Using a three-period weighted moving average with weights 4, 2, and 1, forecast the unemployment rate for Spain in 2018.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.8, forecast the unemployment rate for Spain in 2018.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

e. Which forecast do you have most confidence in?

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Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Year Year 11.3 2008 2013 26.2 2014 2009 18.0 24.6 22.2 2010 20.0 2015 21.5 2016 2011 19.7 2012 24.9 2017 17.3