The Independence School is a private grade school that depends on enrollment forecasting to plan for the upcoming school year. The following data show the enrollments for the past several years. These data can also be found in the Excel file Independence School.xlsx.

a. Forecast the 2018 enrollment for the Independence School using four-period simple moving average.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Forecast the 2018 enrollment for the Independence School using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.4.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. In which forecast do you have most confidence? Why?

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Enrollment 624 645 Enrollment 630 Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 625 641 659 656 643