The IRS is actively encouraging individuals to file their taxes electronically in order to increase accuracy and reduce expenses. The following data show the percentage of tax returns filed electronically from 2009 to 2018. These data can also be found in the Excel file electronic filing.xlsx.

a. Forecast the percentage of tax returns that will be electronically filed for 2019 using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.4.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Forecast the percentage of tax returns that will be electronically filed for 2019 using exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. Set ? = 0.4 and ? = 0.6.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. In which forecast do you have the most confidence? Why?

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Year Percentage Percentage Year 2009 67 2014 84 2015 2010 70 85 2011 77 2016 87 2012 78 2017 88 2013 83 2018 88