The number of viewers for network television shows has a direct effect on the amount of advertising dollars that will be generated. The following data show the number of viewers, in millions, for the final performance of the following seasons of American Idol. These data can also be found in the Excel file American Idol viewers.xlsx.

Year Viewers Year Viewers 2005 30.3 2010 20.1 2006 31.8 2011 20.6 2007 25.3 2012 14.9 2008 27.1 2013 12.1 2009 23.8 Based on: Nielsen data.

a. Forecast the number of viewers for American Idol for the final performance of the 2014 season using three-period weighted moving average with weights 3, 2, and 1.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Forecast the number of viewers for American Idol for the final performance of the 2014 season using exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and setting a = 0.4 and b = 0.2.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. In which forecast do you have the most confidence?

Why?

AppendixLO1