Question: 15. Using the file Mitta 36 68.txt from the Exercises folder (DataMarketTime Series Data LibraryHydrologyMonthly flows for Mitta Mitta River, Tallandoon, January 1936December 1968), record

15. Using the file “Mitta 36 68.txt” from the Exercises folder (DataMarket–Time Series Data Library–Hydrology–Monthly flows for Mitta Mitta River, Tallandoon, January 1936–December 1968), record monthly flows for the Mitta Mitta river:

(i) Fit all possible Fourier series to the data and use AICF and R2 F,pred to select the best model. Use your own judgment to assess whether a transformation is required.

(ii) Plot the data with a poor fit and a good fit to the data side by side (use your own judgment to decide how much data to plot, if plotting all of the data produces “too busy” a display).

(iii) Develop the sequential likelihood ratio tests for this model. Which model appears best using this criterion?

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