The Defense Department has recently advertised for bids for producing a new night-vision binocular. Vista Optical has decided to submit a bid for the contract. The first step was to supply a sample of binoculars for the army to test at its Kentucky development grounds. Vista makes a superior night-vision binocular. However, the 4 sent to the army for testing were taken from a development-lab project of 20 units that contained 4 defectives. The army has indicated it will reject any manufacturer that submits 1 or more defective binoculars. What is the probability that this mistake has cost Vista any chance for the contract?