The following is part of the computer output from a regression of monthly returns on Waterworks stock against the S&P 500 Index. A hedge fund manager believes that Waterworks is underpriced, with an alpha of 2% over the coming month.

Beta R-square Standard Deviation of Residuals

.75 .65 .06 (i.e., 6% monthly)

a. If he holds a $3 million portfolio of Waterworks stock, and wishes to hedge market exposure for the next month using one-month maturity S&P 500 futures contracts, how many contracts should he enter? Should he buy or sell contracts? The S&P 500 currently is at 1,000 and the contract multiplier is $250.

b. What is the standard deviation of the monthly return of the hedged portfolio?

c. Assuming that monthly returns are approximately normally distributed, what is the probability that this market-neutral strategy will lose money over the next month?

Assume the risk-free rate is .5% per month.

Challenge

 LO.1