A regional supplier of jet fuel is interested in forecasting its sales. These sales data are shown
Question:
A regional supplier of jet fuel is interested in forecasting its sales. These sales data are shown for the period from 2002Q1 to 2017Q4 (data in billions of gallons):
Jet Fuel Sales (Billions of Gallons)
Year | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
2002 | 23.86 | 23.97 | 29.23 | 24.32 |
2003 | 23.89 | 26.84 | 29.36 | 26.30 |
2004 | 27.09 | 29.42 | 32.43 | 29.17 |
2005 | 28.86 | 32.10 | 34.82 | 30.48 |
2006 | 30.87 | 33.75 | 35.11 | 30.00 |
2007 | 29.95 | 32.63 | 36.78 | 32.34 |
2008 | 33.63 | 36.97 | 39.71 | 34.96 |
2009 | 35.78 | 38.59 | 42.96 | 39.27 |
2010 | 40.77 | 45.31 | 51.45 | 45.13 |
2011 | 48.13 | 50.35 | 56.73 | 48.83 |
2012 | 49.02 | 50.73 | 53.74 | 46.38 |
2013 | 46.32 | 51.65 | 52.73 | 47.45 |
2014 | 49.01 | 53.99 | 55.63 | 50.04 |
2015 | 54.77 | 56.89 | 57.82 | 53.30 |
2016 | 54.69 | 60.88 | 63.59 | 59.46 |
2017 | 61.59 | 68.75 | 71.33 | 64.88 |
- Prepare a time series graph of these data. What, if any, seasonal pattern do you see in the plot? Explain.
- Use Forecast X™ to make a time series decomposition (TSD) forecast for 2018. Write a brief report explaining your forecast. Include a graph of the fitted values, the forecast values, and the actual sales.
- Develop two other forecasts of jet fuel sales using the following methods:
Compare the MAPEs for the three models you have developed, and comment on what you like or dislike about each of the three models for this application.
Step by Step Answer:
Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X
ISBN: 1860
7th Edition
Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating