The Bechtal Tire Company (BTC) is a supplier of automotive tires for U.S. car companies. BTC has

Question:

The Bechtal Tire Company (BTC) is a supplier of automotive tires for U.S. car companies. BTC has hired you to analyze its sales. For this problem, do all the work in Forecast X™ and be sure to request the MAPE in the statistics tab. Data from 1995 Q1 through 2016 Q4 are given in the following table (in thousands of units):

Period

Sales of Tires


Period

Sales of Tires


Period

Sales of Tires


Period

Sales of Tires


Period

Sales of Tires

Mar-95

2,029


Mar-00

1,752


Mar-05

2,155


Mar-10

1,994


Mar-14

1,914

Jun-95

2,347


Jun-00

2,138


Jun-05

2,231


Jun-10

2,251


Jun-14

2,076

Sep-95

1,926


Sep-00

1,927


Sep-05

1,971


Sep-10

1,855


Sep-14

1,787

Dec-95

2,162


Dec-00

1,546


Dec-05

1,875


Dec-10

1,852


Dec-14

1,763

Mar-96

1,783


Mar-01

1,506


Mar-06

1,850


Mar-11

2,042


Mar-15

1,707

Jun-96

2,190


Jun-01

1,709


Jun-06

1,551


Jun-11

2,273


Jun-15

2,019

Sep-96

1,656


Sep-01

1,734


Sep-06

1,515


Sep-11

2,218


Sep-15

1,898

Dec-96

1,491


Dec-01

2,002


Dec-06

1,666


Dec-11

1,672


Dec-15

1,454

Mar-97

1,974


Mar-02

2,025


Mar-07

1,733


Mar-12

1,898


Mar-16

1,706

Jun-97

2,276


Jun-02

2,376


Jun-07

1,576


Jun-12

2,242


Jun-16

1,878

Sep-97

1,987


Sep-02

1,970


Sep-07

1,618


Sep-12

2,247


Sep-16

1,752

Dec-97

2,425


Dec-02

2,122


Dec-07

1,282


Dec-12

1,827


Dec-16

1,560

Mar-98

2,064


Mar-03

2,128


Mar-08

1,401


Mar-13

1,669


Mar-17


Jun-98

2,517


Jun-03

2,538


Jun-08

1,535


Jun-13

1,973


Jun-17


Sep-98

2,147


Sep-03

2,081


Sep-08

1,327


Sep-13

1,878


Sep-17


Dec-98

2,524


Dec-03

2,223


Dec-08

1,494


Dec-13

1,561


Dec-17


Mar-99

2,451


Mar-04

2,027


Mar-09

1,456







Jun-99

2,718


Jun-04

2,727


Jun-09

1,876







Sep-99

2,229


Sep-04

2,140


Sep-09

1,646







Dec-99

2,190


Dec-04

2,270


Dec-09

1,813







  1. Write a report to Bechtal Tire Company in which you explain what a time-series decomposition analysis shows about its tire sales. Include in your discussion seasonal, cyclical, and trend components. 
  2. Show a time-series graph with the actual data and the values that the time-series decomposition model would predict for each quarter from 1995 Q1 through 2017 Q4 (some data will be missing for certain historical quarters, and, of course for 2017, you will have only the forecast values). 
  3. If actual sales for 2017 were Q1 = 1,445.1, Q2 = 1,683.8, Q3 = 1,586.6, and Q4 = 1,421.3, what MAPE would result from your 2017 forecast?

How does this MAPE compare to the MAPE Forecats X™ calculated for the historic period?

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Related Book For  book-img-for-question

Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X

ISBN: 1860

7th Edition

Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating

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