Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there

Question:

Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there is widespread interest in being able to forecast home sales (HS). Quarterly data for HS are shown in the following table in thousands of units.

Date

Home sales (000) Per Quarter


Date

Home sales (000) Per Quarter


Date

Home sales (000) Per Quarter

Mar-89

161


Mar-95

154


Mar-01

251

Jun-89

179


Jun-95

185


Jun-01

243

Sep-89

172


Sep-95

181


Sep-01

216

Dec-89

138


Dec-95

145


Dec-01

199

Mar-90

153


Mar-96

192


Mar-02

240

Jun-90

152


Jun-96

204


Jun-02

258

Sep-90

130


Sep-96

201


Sep-02

254

Dec-90

100


Dec-96

161


Dec-02

220

Mar-91

121


Mar-97

211


Mar-03

256

Jun-91

144


Jun-97

212


Jun-03

299

Sep-91

126


Sep-97

208


Sep-03

294

Dec-91

116


Dec-97

174


Dec-03

239

Mar-92

159


Mar-98

220


Mar-04

314

Jun-92

158


Jun-98

247


Jun-04

329

Sep-92

159


Sep-98

218


Sep-04

292

Dec-92

132


Dec-98

200


Dec-04

268

Mar-93

154


Mar-99

227


Mar-05

328

Jun-93

183


Jun-99

248


Jun-05

351

Sep-93

169


Sep-99

221


Sep-05

326

Dec-93

160


Dec-99

185


Dec-05

278

Mar-94

178


Mar-00

233


Mar-06

285

Jun-94

185


Jun-00

226


Jun-06

300

Sep-94

165


Sep-00

219


Sep-06

251

Dec-94

142


Dec-00

199


Dec-06

216







Mar-07

214







Jun-07

240

  1. Prepare a time-series plot of THS. Describe what you see in this plot in terms of trend and seasonality.
  2. Calculate and plot the first 12 auto-correlation coefficients for HS. What does this autocorrelation structure suggest about the trend?
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Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X

ISBN: 1860

7th Edition

Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating

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