Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there
Question:
Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there is widespread interest in being able to forecast home sales (HS). Quarterly data for HS are shown in the following table in thousands of units.
Date | Home sales (000) Per Quarter | Date | Home sales (000) Per Quarter | Date | Home sales (000) Per Quarter | ||
Mar-89 | 161 | Mar-95 | 154 | Mar-01 | 251 | ||
Jun-89 | 179 | Jun-95 | 185 | Jun-01 | 243 | ||
Sep-89 | 172 | Sep-95 | 181 | Sep-01 | 216 | ||
Dec-89 | 138 | Dec-95 | 145 | Dec-01 | 199 | ||
Mar-90 | 153 | Mar-96 | 192 | Mar-02 | 240 | ||
Jun-90 | 152 | Jun-96 | 204 | Jun-02 | 258 | ||
Sep-90 | 130 | Sep-96 | 201 | Sep-02 | 254 | ||
Dec-90 | 100 | Dec-96 | 161 | Dec-02 | 220 | ||
Mar-91 | 121 | Mar-97 | 211 | Mar-03 | 256 | ||
Jun-91 | 144 | Jun-97 | 212 | Jun-03 | 299 | ||
Sep-91 | 126 | Sep-97 | 208 | Sep-03 | 294 | ||
Dec-91 | 116 | Dec-97 | 174 | Dec-03 | 239 | ||
Mar-92 | 159 | Mar-98 | 220 | Mar-04 | 314 | ||
Jun-92 | 158 | Jun-98 | 247 | Jun-04 | 329 | ||
Sep-92 | 159 | Sep-98 | 218 | Sep-04 | 292 | ||
Dec-92 | 132 | Dec-98 | 200 | Dec-04 | 268 | ||
Mar-93 | 154 | Mar-99 | 227 | Mar-05 | 328 | ||
Jun-93 | 183 | Jun-99 | 248 | Jun-05 | 351 | ||
Sep-93 | 169 | Sep-99 | 221 | Sep-05 | 326 | ||
Dec-93 | 160 | Dec-99 | 185 | Dec-05 | 278 | ||
Mar-94 | 178 | Mar-00 | 233 | Mar-06 | 285 | ||
Jun-94 | 185 | Jun-00 | 226 | Jun-06 | 300 | ||
Sep-94 | 165 | Sep-00 | 219 | Sep-06 | 251 | ||
Dec-94 | 142 | Dec-00 | 199 | Dec-06 | 216 | ||
Mar-07 | 214 | ||||||
Jun-07 | 240 |
- Prepare a time-series plot of THS. Describe what you see in this plot in terms of trend and seasonality.
- Calculate and plot the first 12 auto-correlation coefficients for HS. What does this autocorrelation structure suggest about the trend?
Step by Step Answer:
Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X
ISBN: 1860
7th Edition
Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating