Suppose that you work for a U.S. senator who is contemplating writing a bill that would put

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Suppose that you work for a U.S. senator who is contemplating writing a bill that would put a national sales tax in place. Because the tax would be levied on the sales revenue of retail stores, the senator has asked you to prepare a forecast of retail store sales for year 8, based on data from year 1 through year 7. The data are:

Year……………………………Retail Store Sales

1……………………………………$ 1,225

2……………………………………….1,285

3……………………………………….1,359

4……………………………………….1,392

5……………………………………….1,443

6……………………………………….1,474

7……………………………………….1,467

  1. Use the naive forecasting model presented in this chapter to prepare a forecast of retail store sales for each year from 2 through 8.
  2. Prepare a time-series graph of the actual and forecast values of retail store sales for the entire period. (You will not have a forecast for year 1 or an actual value for year 8.)
  3. Calculate the MAPE for your forecast series using the values for year 2 through year 7
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Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X

ISBN: 1860

7th Edition

Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating

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