How would you expect a shrinking energy sector and an expanding manufacturing sector to influence the actual and natural unemployment rates?

Unemployment falls to 4.9 percent, lowest in 8 years

U.S. unemployment of 4.9 percent is full employment. Only 151,000 jobs were created in January, down from 262,000 in December. With falling oil prices, 7,000 energy jobs were lost in January but 29,000 manufacturing jobs were added.