What is the probability of breast cancer among 50- to 59-year-old women in the general population who have a serum-estradiol level of ‰¥ 20 pg/mL? What is another name for this quantity? 

Cancer
Breast cancer is considered largely a hormonal disease. An important hormone in breast-cancer research is estradiol. The data in Table 3.18 on serum estradiol levels were obtained from 213 breast-cancer cases and 432 agematched controls. All women were age 50€“59 years.

Table 3.18: Serum-estradiol data

Suppose a serum-estradiol level of 20+ pg/mL is proposed as a screening criterion for identifying breast-cancer cases.

The preceding sample was selected to over sample cases. In the general population, the prevalence of breast cancer is about 2% among women 50€“59 years of age.

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Serum ostradiol (pg/mL) Casos (N = 213) Controls (N = 432) 72 1-4 28 5-9 96 233 10-14 53 86 15-19 17 26 20-24 10 6 25-29 3 5 30+ 6 4