3. It has been argued that the stock market predicts recessions. Using quarterly data since 1961, plot the real value of the stock market index (the S&P 500 index in the last month of the quarter divided by the GDP deflator). [Note that data on the S&P 500 index may be found at finance.yahoo.com.] Draw in the business cycle peaks and troughs. Do you find the stock market to be a good economic forecaster?