Pottery An artist experimenting with clay to create pottery with a special texture has been experiencing difficulty with these special pieces. About 40% break in the kiln during firing.

Hoping to solve this problem, she buys some more expensive clay from another supplier. She plans to make and fire 10 pieces and will decide to use the new clay if at most one of them breaks.

a) Suppose the new, expensive clay really is no better than her usual clay. What’s the probability that this test convinces her to use it anyway? (Hint: Use a Binomial model.)

b) If she decides to switch to the new clay and it is no better, what kind of error did she commit?

c) If the new clay really can reduce breakage to only 20%, what’s the probability that her test will not detect the improvement?

d) How can she improve the power of her test? Offer at least two suggestions.