7. Forecasting Grexit (advanced). Consider the case of Greece in the spring of 2010;

its national currency, the drachma, was abolished when it joined the eurozone and it officially adopted the euro as its currency. Apply the four-step forecasting procedure presented in Appendix 15A using quarterly International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics at www.imf.org over the period 2001–2010.

What conclusion do you reach? Do you believe that Greece will exit the eurozone?

If so, when?