4.81 Cheating on Your Taxes? Suppose 5% of all people filing the income tax form seek deductions...

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4.81 Cheating on Your Taxes? Suppose 5% of all people filing the income tax form seek deductions that they know are illegal, and an additional 2% incorrectly list deductions because they are unfamiliar with income tax regulations. Of the 5% who are guilty of cheating, 80% will deny knowledge of the error if confronted by an investigator. If the filer of the long form is con- fronted with an unwarranted deduction and he or she denies the knowledge of the error, what is the probabil- ity that he or she is guilty?

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