Merck is debating whether to invest in a pioneer biotech project. The company estimates that project is

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Merck is debating whether to invest in a pioneer biotech project. The company estimates that project is worth –$56 million. Investing in the pioneer project gives Merck the option to own, if it wants to, a much bigger technology that will be available in four years. If Merck does not participate in the pioneer project, it cannot own the bigger project. The bigger project will require $1.5 billion in cash four years from now. Currently, Merck estimates the net present value (NPV) of the cash flows from the bigger project to be $597 million. Assuming a risk-free rate of 10 percent and that the annual volatility for the bigger project is 35 percent, what should Merck do?

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