Robin is planning to ask Peggy to the Homecoming dance. Before he asks her, he wants to know what the chances are that she’ll say “yes.” Robin is a scientist so he considers two paths to estimate the probability that Peggy will say yes.

I. Ask 10 of his friends, “Do you think she’ll really say yes?”

II. Tell another 10 of his friends, “I’m starting a betting market. I’ll pay $10 if she says yes,

$0 if she says no. I’m only offering this bet, : lop96