The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:

MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 31 636 2 34 738 3 33 840 4 35 940 5 37 10 41

a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of .30 and an initial forecast (F1) of 31.

b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α of .30, a δ of .30, an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast (F1) of 30.

c. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecast. Which is best?