The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.

a. Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naïve method, a two‐period moving average, and exponential smoothing with an α = 0.2. (Hint: Use naïve to start the exponential smoothing process.)

b. Compare the forecasts using MAD and decide which is best.

c. Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.

Month Sales January 37 February 35 March 42 April 38 May 48 June 45