The manager of the health clinic in Problem 5 would also like to use exponential smoothing to forecast demand for emergency services in the facility. As in Problem 5, she is not sure whether to use a high or low value of α. To make her decision, she would like to compare the forecast accuracy of a high and low α on historical data. This time, she has decided to use an α = 0.6 for the high value and α = 0.2 for the low value.

a. Given the following historical data, which value of α do you think would be better to use?

b. Is your answer the same as in Problem 5? Why or why not?

Week Demand

(in patients serviced)

1 425 2 299 3 355 4 450 5 490 6 375