The Office of Environmental Studies uses a reorder point system to govern its order- ing of new shipments of public information flyers. Demand for public information flyers varies, depending on the number of public visitors that the Office of Environ- mental Studies receives each day, and the delay between when the office requests a new shipment of flyers and when it actually receives that shipment can also vary slightly. Thus, based on past experience, the Office of Environmental Studies esti- mates that demand for flyers during the lead time on a new shipment is normally distributed, with an average of 200 flyers and a variance of 50 flyers. If the Office of Environmental Studies reorders when its stock of flyers falls to 215, what is the chance that the new shipment will arrive before the office runs out completely and must disappoint a visiting member of the public?