The following information is relevant:

■ A fixed cost is incurred on January 1 of year 0 and will be between $1 billion and $5 billion. There is a 20% chance the fixed cost will be less than or equal to $2 billion, a 60% chance that it will be less than or equal to $3 billion, and a 90% chance that it will be less than or equal to $4 billion. The fixed cost is depreciated on a straight-line basis during years 1 to 5.

■ The weighted average cost of capital is 15%. This is the rate Nucleon uses for discounting cash flows.

■ The market size in year 1 is 10 million pigs.

■ During each of years 2 to 5, the market size will grow at the same rate. This growth rate is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case 15%, most likely case 6%, and worst case 1%.

■ The selling price is always $100 per unit, and the unit cost of production is always $16 per unit.

■ In year 1, the average number of units of the drug sold for each pig will be between 1 and 2, with 1.3 and 1.7 being equally likely, and 1.5 being twice as likely as 1.3.

■ There are three potential competitors. During each of years 1 to 5, a competitor who has not entered the market has a 60% chance of entering the market.

■ The year after a competitor enters the market, the average units sold per pig of the Nucleon drug drops by 20% for each competitor entering. For example, suppose that sales per pig are 1.5 units in year