You are thinking about funding a Kickstarter campaign for a hybrid mechanical/digital calendar for which you’re willing to pay $125. To receive a calendar, the company required that you pledge $100. You think there’s about an 80% chance of the company succeeding, but if the product fails, you won’t receive a refund. Is this a fair bet? Would you pledge the $100? Hint: Use your consumer surplus if the company succeeds to evaluate the bet.