Hypotheses about causes Arguments about cause and effect are fraught with peril. The reason is that such arguments are in essence probabilistic rather than deterministic. Discuss the validity of the following inductive arguments.

(a) He was shot, and then died. Therefore the bullet killed him.

(b) Unemployment increased after President Bush took office. Therefore President Bush is responsible for increased unemployment.

(c) I took a home remedy after my cold started, and then I got better. Therefore the home remedy made me better.

(d) A thousand people took a home remedy after getting a cold, and recovered on average within 7 days. A thousand people took no home remedy after Table 11.8. Conditional distribution for liking or disliking green eggs and ham.
R,G L¼0 L¼1 00 7/8 1/8 01 1/4 3/4 10 1/4 3/4 11 1/8 7/8

getting a cold and recovered on average within 8 days. Therefore the home remedy helps cure a cold.

(e) Fred, Mary, and Bill had a meal at the university cafeteria, and all got food poisoning. Fred ate fries, mystery meat, and ice cream; Mary ate salad, mystery meat and cake; Bill ate salad, mystery meat, and vegetables.
Therefore mystery meat was the cause of food poisoning.

(f) In addition to the facts in (e), Lizette ate soup, pizza and ice cream while Cheryle ate soup, noodles and cake, and neither got food poisoning.
Therefore mystery meat was the cause of food poisoning.

Transcribed Image Text:

G R L Figure 11.11 Green eggs and ham belief network.