On the basis of reconnaissance reports, Colonel Smith decides that the probability of an enemy attack against

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On the basis of reconnaissance reports, Colonel Smith decides that the probability of an enemy attack against the left is 0.20, against the center is 0.50, and against the right is 0.30. A flurry of enemy radio traffic occurs in preparation for the attack. Since deception is normal as a prelude to battle, Colonel Brown, having intercepted the radio traffic, tells General Quick that if the enemy wanted to attack on the left, the probability is 0.20 that he would have sent this particular radio traffic. He tells the general that the corresponding probabilities for an attack on the center or the right are 0.70 and 0.10, respectively. How should General Quick use these two equally reliable staff members’ views to get the best probability profile for the forthcoming attack?

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