The history of the load on a work centre is furnished :

(a) Use appropriate value of the smoothing constant ( ) and forecast for February 2009.

Do not consider seasonality.

(b) Forecast for the load during April 2009. Explain the procedure.

(c) In this chapter we used “smoothing” twice: once for the random component and secondly for the trend. Instead, use the following “second-order” system of smoothing which is claimed to give forecasts already corrected for steady trend in demand:

Ft+1 = Dt +2 (1 – ) Ft

– (1 – ) Ft–1 For the same value of , how does this system compare with the one you used in part 8.26 Production and Operations Management

(a) of this question? Use a different value of , and check the performance of this second order system.
Month Load (Machine hr)
Month Load (Machine hr)
2007 January 1190 2008 January 1420 2007 February 1220 2008 February 1340 2007 March 1240 2008 March 1445 2007 April 1250 2008 April 1490 2007 May 1200 2008 May 1610 2007 June 1230 2008 June 1575 2007 July 1290 2008 July 1605 2007 August 1325 2008 August 1590 2007 September 1370 2008 September 1665 2007 October 1330 2008 October 1730 2007 November 1350 2008 November 1695 2007 December 1390 2008 December 1775 2009 January 1880