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Rockville Bank is reviewing its loan portfolios to estimate how diversified their portfolios are. For internal purposes, the Bank assesses credit risk into four categories

Rockville Bank is reviewing its loan portfolios to estimate how diversified their portfolios are. For internal purposes, the Bank assesses credit risk into four categories – High Quality, Average Quality, Poor Quality, and Default. Over the years, the following transition matrix has evolved:

From/to

High

Average

Poor

Default

High

80%

15%

4%

1%

Average

10%

65%

20%

5%

Poor

5%

15%

55%

25%

For example, a loan rated High Quality this year has a 80% probability of remaining High Quality next year, a 15% probability of falling to Average Quality, and so on.

Based on this data, if

This year the portfolio contains $1,050M of High Quality, $325M of Average Quality, and $85M of Poor Quality loans, giving a total loan portfolio of $1,460M.

a. Estimate the loan portfolio mix in one year.

b. Suppose the bank wishes to maintain the current relative mix of credit type, High, $1,050M/$1,460M = 72%, Average, $325M/$1,460M = 22%, and Poor, $1,050M/$1,460M = 6%. How many new loans and of what type must the bank sell during the year to maintain this relative mix?

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