1. 2. (a) Apply both Journey Making and Strategic Choice to one problem with which you are familiar (16 marks) (b) Apply Soft Systems Methodology to one problem with which you are familiar (where this problem must be distinctly different from the problem considered in part (a) of the question). (9 marks) Note here that for this question no credit will be obtained for using the crime problem as given in the subject guide. Your answer to part (a) should be limited to 6 pages, your answer to part (b) limited to 3 pages. Briefly discuss each of the following topics from the viewpoint of Operational Research/Management Science: (a) Using simulation to estimate the effect on public bus transport of enforcing a one metre separation between individuals (9 marks) (b) Two specific and practical problem situations with which you are familiar where the assumptions underlying optimisation are false (7 marks) (c) Using Markov processes to model the progress of a new, and previously unknown, disease in a population (9 marks) 6. A company is using Markov theory to analyse switching between four different foods marketed as slimming aids. These slimming aids claim that with regular use they result in significant weight loss. Individual customers who buy these sliming aids only switch (on average) once every four months. Market research has produced the data shown below for the probability of customers switching between slimming aids. Page 6 of 9 UL20/0468 1 1 1 slimming aid From slimming aid 2 3 0.04 0.02 0.55 0.89 0.30 0.04 0.11 0.05 4 0 0 0 5 ololo 1 Here, for example, there is a probability of 0.11 that a customer switches to slimming aid 4 from slimming aid 2. The current market shares are 9%, 78%, 3% and 10% for aids 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. (a) Copy the following table into your answer and fill in the long-run prediction for the market shares for these four slimming aids. (20 marks) Aid 1 Aid 3 Aid 4 Long-run (%, 2dp) (b) The appropriate regulatory authority in the country where these four slimming aids are marketed has been concerned about the claims made for weight loss. As a result of an investigation which they have made they intend to ban sliming aid 2 from the market in six months' time for making false claims. Giving a clear explanation of your working, copy the following table into your answer and fill in the percentage of the market that will be affected by this ban when it is imposed in six months' time. Aid 2 Value Percentage affected (2dp) (5 marks) 1. 2. (a) Apply both Journey Making and Strategic Choice to one problem with which you are familiar (16 marks) (b) Apply Soft Systems Methodology to one problem with which you are familiar (where this problem must be distinctly different from the problem considered in part (a) of the question). (9 marks) Note here that for this question no credit will be obtained for using the crime problem as given in the subject guide. Your answer to part (a) should be limited to 6 pages, your answer to part (b) limited to 3 pages. Briefly discuss each of the following topics from the viewpoint of Operational Research/Management Science: (a) Using simulation to estimate the effect on public bus transport of enforcing a one metre separation between individuals (9 marks) (b) Two specific and practical problem situations with which you are familiar where the assumptions underlying optimisation are false (7 marks) (c) Using Markov processes to model the progress of a new, and previously unknown, disease in a population (9 marks) 6. A company is using Markov theory to analyse switching between four different foods marketed as slimming aids. These slimming aids claim that with regular use they result in significant weight loss. Individual customers who buy these sliming aids only switch (on average) once every four months. Market research has produced the data shown below for the probability of customers switching between slimming aids. Page 6 of 9 UL20/0468 1 1 1 slimming aid From slimming aid 2 3 0.04 0.02 0.55 0.89 0.30 0.04 0.11 0.05 4 0 0 0 5 ololo 1 Here, for example, there is a probability of 0.11 that a customer switches to slimming aid 4 from slimming aid 2. The current market shares are 9%, 78%, 3% and 10% for aids 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. (a) Copy the following table into your answer and fill in the long-run prediction for the market shares for these four slimming aids. (20 marks) Aid 1 Aid 3 Aid 4 Long-run (%, 2dp) (b) The appropriate regulatory authority in the country where these four slimming aids are marketed has been concerned about the claims made for weight loss. As a result of an investigation which they have made they intend to ban sliming aid 2 from the market in six months' time for making false claims. Giving a clear explanation of your working, copy the following table into your answer and fill in the percentage of the market that will be affected by this ban when it is imposed in six months' time. Aid 2 Value Percentage affected (2dp)