1. A lottery is to be conducted using 10 urns, 7 of which are of type I and 3 of which are of type II. Urns of type I contain 3 red and 7 black; urns of type II contain 8 red and 2 black balls. One of these 10 urns is selected canonically and you are asked to guess whether the selected urn is of type I or type II. You will receive a reward or penalty according to whether your guess is correct or not given in the accompanying table: Guess (act) Type I (ai) Type II (az) True State Type I Type II +$300 -$100 -$50 +$800 [subscribe t is ignored in some places without causing confusion.] e. a. Compute v(a), 7(a) and find a b. Exhibit the opportunity loss table and compute 7(a), 7(a). c. Find and interpret the EVPI. d. Compute the prior expected value of action posterior to perfect information. For this problem, verify 1(a,x)= v(a,,s) - va,s) and v(a)- v(an) = (az)-1(a) f. If a single drawing is made from the urn and the decision maker computes the EVPI, will it be the same as the original EVPI or larger or smaller? Why? [make no computations] g. Compute the revised EVPI given that the drawing is made and the ball is (1) red; (2) black. 1. A lottery is to be conducted using 10 urns, 7 of which are of type I and 3 of which are of type II. Urns of type I contain 3 red and 7 black; urns of type II contain 8 red and 2 black balls. One of these 10 urns is selected canonically and you are asked to guess whether the selected urn is of type I or type II. You will receive a reward or penalty according to whether your guess is correct or not given in the accompanying table: Guess (act) Type I (ai) Type II (az) True State Type I Type II +$300 -$100 -$50 +$800 [subscribe t is ignored in some places without causing confusion.] e. a. Compute v(a), 7(a) and find a b. Exhibit the opportunity loss table and compute 7(a), 7(a). c. Find and interpret the EVPI. d. Compute the prior expected value of action posterior to perfect information. For this problem, verify 1(a,x)= v(a,,s) - va,s) and v(a)- v(an) = (az)-1(a) f. If a single drawing is made from the urn and the decision maker computes the EVPI, will it be the same as the original EVPI or larger or smaller? Why? [make no computations] g. Compute the revised EVPI given that the drawing is made and the ball is (1) red; (2) black