1. Calculate the average daily dose (ADD) and risk for each route of exposure based on average values. 2. Do a run with Crystal Ball. Based on the results of the run, state the upper and lower 95% confidence limits for each of the risks. Determine the parameters that have the greatest influence on the results. Make sure you define the assumption for each uncertain parameter based on the data in the table prior to running Crystal Ball. Parameter Average Units Distribution TCE concentration in water 225 ug/L Uniform 183 - 267 ug/L Water intake 0.87 L/day Normal Mean: 0.87 L/day 95th percentile: 2 L/day TCE concentration in ambient air 0.86 ug/m3 Uniform 0.51 - 1.22 ug/m3 m3/day Normal Mean: 13.1 m3/day 95th percentile: 19.3 m3/day TCE concentration in 1033 room during a shower ug/m3 Uniform 689 - 1378 ug/m3 Time per shower 10 minutes Normal Mean: 10 minutes Std dev.: 5 minutes Body Weight 52 kg Normal Mean: 52 kg Std dev.: 10 kg Exposure duration 10 years Average lifetime 70 years Cancer potency for inhalation 5.88E-6 kg-day/ug Cancer potency for 4.6E-5 kg-day/ug Breathing rate 13.1 ingestion .Note that the EPA has withdrawn its cancer potency values from IRIS. I took the numbers in the table from other literature. You are three steps away from using Crystal Ball. 1. Download Crystal Ball. If you have not already done so, download Crystal Ball from: http://www.oracle.com/technetwork/middleware/crystalball/downloads/index.html Choose the correct Bit version for your Windows machine. Almost all machines are running MS OFFICE in 32 bit, even if your OS is 64bit, your version of MS Office is likely 32 bit. You will have to create an Oracle Account. You will have to go in and create a profile with your own username and password, (these are YOURS, they are not the Username and Serial Number below). Once you've created the profile, you'll log in to the portal and the download should start. 2. Install Crystal Ball. You will need to extract the Crystal Ball files from the .zip file into a temporary directory. Then run Setup.html which will walk you through the installation. Make sure you exit Microsoft Excel before you begin the installation. 3. License Crystal Ball. ** Please note that Crystal Ball has adopted new licensing technology. Here is your Username and Serial Number: ** Product: Crystal Ball Username: ENVM647@berkowitz.edu Serial Number: A16BA680-884636D0-41936ED3-7AF793F9 Version: N/A License for: single user Features: OPTIMIZATION WATERMARK CLASSROOM Expiration Date: 5/31/2016 License Type: Trial There are two ways to activate your license: 1. Click on the \"Activate License\" button at the bottom of the Welcome Screen that appears after you launch Crystal Ball. Enter your Username and Serial Number into the licensing dialog. 2. For Microsoft Excel 2000, 2002 (XP), and 2003, click on \"Help > Crystal Ball > Licensing...\" from the menu bar. (For Microsoft Excel 2007, click on the \"Crystal Ball\" tab, then \"Resources > Licensing...\") Enter your Username and Serial Number into the licensing dialog. That's it! If you are new to Crystal Ball or need technical support visit our Web site at: http://www.oracle.com/crystalball The Oracle Technology Network is also a great place to find resources: http://www.oracle.com/technology/index.html Sincerely, Crystal Ball Team