1 - Create Forecasts for the given time-series data thru the end of 2016

a) last period demand (naive model)

b) simple average model

c) a 4 period moving average

d) an exponentially weighted moving average with alpha = 0.2

2 - Calculate Mean Error (ME) and Mean Absolute Deviation(MAD) statistics for each forecast over the period 2011 thru 2015 (inclusive)

3 - Which is the best forecast ... why?

4 - How could forecasts be improved?

HINT... make sure you create charts of the series you are trying to forecast and the resulting forecasts !!