Question
1. Forecast the expected cash flow for Nextel Peru for the next year (2013). Make sure to use free cash flow (FCF) rather than net
1. Forecast the expected cash flow for Nextel Peru for the next year (2013). Make sure to use free cash flow (FCF) rather than net income or other measures. 2. Nextel Peru is considered to be a mature company and therefore its future cash flows are expected to grow at a relatively low rate forever. Estimate this growth rate. 3. Decide on a model for the cost of capital. Pay attention to the the locale and the portfolio of the investor and the locale of Nextel Peru. Estimate the risk(s) and the risk premium(s). Calculate the cost of capital. 4. Determine the value of Nextel Peru. Based on this value, conclude whether to pay $400 million for Nextel Peru or not. 5. Projected growth rate in the expected cash flows, the model for cost of capital, the risk-free rate, the value(s) of measure(s) of risk and the value(s) of the risk premium(s), do some sensitivity analysis to determine the scenarios in which paying $400 million for Nextel Peru would be a good idea, and scenarios in which it wont be.
Last 12 Months: | 5 Year Average: | ||||||||||||
Revenue | EBIT | EBITDA | EBIAT | FCF | Revenue | EBIT | EBITDA | EBIAT | FCF | ||||
Companies: | Growth | Margin | Margin | Margin (1) | Margin | Growth (2) | Margin | Margin | Margin (1) | Margin | |||
America Movil | 13.0% | 19.7% | 33.0% | 21.8% | 10.6% | 19.1% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | |||
Embratel Participacoes S.A. | 45.0% | 11.5% | 26.9% | 5.9% | -11.0% | 17.2% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 1.3% | |||
Empresa Nacional De Telecomunicaciones | 14.8% | 17.4% | 38.4% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 8.1% | 21.6% | 42.7% | 18.2% | 5.6% | |||
NII Holdings | -11.7% | 0.9% | 14.2% | NM | -6.7% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 24.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | |||
Oi SA | 165.1% | 18.6% | 30.1% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 20.5% | 22.2% | 33.9% | 15.9% | 16.0% | |||
Telecom Argentina | 18.3% | 18.3% | 26.3% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 19.4% | 20.8% | 30.5% | 13.5% | 12.1% | |||
Telefonica Brasil | 2.1% | 20.2% | 35.9% | 12.8% | 19.2% | 18.1% | 21.4% | 36.9% | 15.0% | 16.9% | |||
Telefonica Del Peru | 5.3% | 19.3% | 34.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 19.2% | 39.7% | 10.9% | 15.7% | |||
TIM Participacoes S.A. | 6.8% | 13.8% | 28.0% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 26.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | |||
Average | 28.7% | 15.5% | 29.7% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 29.1% | 11.9% | 9.5% | |||
Median | 13.0% | 18.3% | 30.1% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 17.2% | 19.2% | 30.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% |
Operating Results: | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Service Revenue | 5,348,400 | 6,403,519 | 5,779,159 | ||||||
Plus: Handset & Accessory Revenue | 257,407 | 331,427 | 307,304 | ||||||
Total Operating Revenue | 5,605,807 | 6,734,946 | 6,086,463 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Service (Excluding Depreciation & Amortization) | 1,504,603 | 1,789,402 | 1,690,464 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Handset Sales | 719,219 | 855,929 | 915,120 | ||||||
Gross Profit | 3,381,985 | 4,089,615 | 3,480,879 | ||||||
Less: Selling & Marketing (1) | 1,946,706 | 2,504,976 | 2,875,359 | ||||||
EBITDA | 1,435,279 | 1,584,639 | 605,520 | ||||||
Less: Depreciation & Amortization | 554,886 | 653,087 | 728,780 | ||||||
Operating Income | 880,393 | 931,552 | -123,260 | ||||||
Less: Interest Expense | 344,999 | 322,111 | 373,253 | ||||||
Plus: Interest Income | 28,841 | 34,224 | 34,143 | ||||||
Plus: Foreign Currency Gains | 52,374 | -36,975 | -53,415 | ||||||
Less: Other Expenses | 18,686 | 37,305 | 27,355 | ||||||
Earnings Before Taxes | 597,923 | 569,385 | -543,140 | ||||||
Less: Taxes | 259,465 | 344,189 | 222,109 | ||||||
Net Income | 338,458 | 225,196 | -765,249 |
Assets: | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Cash & Cash Equivalents | 1,767,501 | 2,322,919 | 1,383,491 | ||||||
Plus: Short-Term Investments | 537,539 | 343,422 | 204,834 | ||||||
Plus: Net Accounts Receivable | 788,000 | 858,471 | 705,737 | ||||||
Plus: Handset Inventory | 227,191 | 277,291 | 349,704 | ||||||
Plus: Deferred Taxes | 186,988 | 203,012 | 175,753 | ||||||
Plus: Prepaid Expenses & Other Current Assets | 393,658 | 331,407 | 515,513 | ||||||
Total Current Assets | 3,900,877 | 4,336,522 | 3,335,032 | ||||||
Net Property, Plant & Equipment | 2,960,046 | 3,481,869 | 3,884,947 | ||||||
Plus: Net Intangible Assets | 433,208 | 1,182,380 | 1,164,672 | ||||||
Plus: Deferred Taxes | 486,098 | 410,162 | 367,182 | ||||||
Plus: Other Assets | 410,458 | 411,203 | 471,245 | ||||||
Total Assets | 8,190,687 | 9,822,136 | 9,223,078 | ||||||
Liabilities & Owners' Equity: | |||||||||
Accounts Payable | 300,030 | 377,679 | 485,542 | ||||||
Plus: Accrued & Other Expenses | 827,253 | 1,008,932 | 1,015,788 | ||||||
Plus: Deferred Revenue | 158,690 | 159,150 | 161,451 | ||||||
Plus: Current Portion of Long-Term Debt | 446,995 | 573,465 | 97,244 | ||||||
Total Curent Liabilities | 1,732,968 | 2,119,226 | 1,760,025 | ||||||
Long-Term Debt | 2,818,423 | 4,244,752 | 4,768,958 | ||||||
Plus: Deferred Revenue | 20,476 | 15,585 | 14,007 | ||||||
Plus: Deferred Tax Liabilities | 88,068 | 61,156 | 58,189 | ||||||
Plus: Other Long-Term Liabilities | 211,179 | 243,335 | 305,450 | ||||||
Total Liabilities | 4,871,114 | 6,684,054 | 6,906,629 | ||||||
Total Stockholders' Equity | 3,319,573 | 3,138,082 | 2,316,449 | ||||||
Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity | 8,190,687 | 9,822,136 | 9,223,078 |
Operating Results: | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Service Revenue | 5,066,404 | 6,081,577 | 5,465,120 | ||||||
Plus: Handset & Accessory Revenue | 227,387 | 299,240 | 278,002 | ||||||
Total Operating Revenue | 5,293,791 | 6,380,817 | 5,743,122 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Service (Excluding Depreciation & Amortization) | 1,404,555 | 1,681,692 | 1,574,327 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Handset Sales | 656,409 | 784,072 | 829,859 | ||||||
Gross Profit | 3,232,827 | 3,915,053 | 3,338,936 | ||||||
Less: Selling & Marketing (1) | 1,813,607 | 2,360,303 | 2,714,770 | ||||||
EBITDA | 1,419,220 | 1,554,750 | 624,166 | ||||||
Less: Depreciation & Amortization | 502,203 | 588,164 | 649,545 | ||||||
Operating Income | 917,017 | 966,586 | -25,379 | ||||||
Less: Interest Expense | 335,918 | 311,735 | 365,521 | ||||||
Plus: Interest Income | 28,334 | 34,096 | 33,862 | ||||||
Plus: Foreign Currency Gains | 52,412 | -37,297 | -53,957 | ||||||
Less: Other Expenses | 18,686 | 37,750 | 28,340 | ||||||
Earnings Before Taxes | 643,159 | 613,900 | -439,335 | ||||||
Less: Taxes | 269,869 | 351,204 | 158,141 | ||||||
Net Income | 373,290 | 262,696 | -597,476 | ||||||
Historical Operating Results | ($ 000's) | ||||||||
Operating Results (1): | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Service Revenue | 281,995 | 321,942 | 314,039 | ||||||
Plus: Handset Revenue | 30,021 | 32,187 | 29,302 | ||||||
Total Operating Revenue | 312,016 | 354,129 | 343,341 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Services (2) | 100,048 | 107,710 | 116,137 | ||||||
Less: Cost of Handset Sales | 62,810 | 71,857 | 85,261 | ||||||
Gross Profit | 149,158 | 174,562 | 141,943 | ||||||
Less: Selling & Marketing Expenses (3) | 55,783 | 63,575 | 72,375 | ||||||
Less: General & Administrative Expenses | 71,112 | 75,672 | 83,549 | ||||||
Segment EBITDA | 22,263 | 35,315 | -13,981 | ||||||
Estimated Depreciation (4) | 34,137 | 35,858 | 35,088 | ||||||
Total Assets | 556,752 | 597,891 | 498,230 | ||||||
Capital Expenditures | 94,000 | 105,500 | 77,700 | ||||||
Net Reinvestment in Long-Term Assets | 59,863 | 69,642 | 42,612 | ||||||
Margins: | |||||||||
Service Revenue Growth | 16.9% | 14.2% | -2.5% | ||||||
Handset Revenue Growth | 10.8% | 7.2% | -9.0% | ||||||
Growth in Operating Revenue | 16.3% | 13.5% | -3.0% | ||||||
Gross Profit on Services | 64.5% | 66.5% | 63.0% | ||||||
Gross Profit on Handsets | -109.2% | -123.2% | -191.0% | ||||||
Total Gross Profit | 47.8% | 49.3% | 41.3% | ||||||
EBITDA Margin | 7.1% | 10.0% | -4.1% | ||||||
EBIT Margin | -3.8% | -0.2% | -14.3% |
NII Holdings Subscriber Data: | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Total Handsets in Use | 9,027 | 10,712 | 11,362 | ||||||
Net Sbscriber Increase | 1,685 | 650 | 629 | ||||||
Estimated Average Subscribers | 8,816 | 10,491 | 11,121 | ||||||
Growth in Subscribers | 21.0% | 19.0% | 6.0% | ||||||
ARPU (1) | 607 | 610 | 520 | ||||||
Nextel Peru Subscriber Data: | |||||||||
Total Handsets in Use | 1,128 | 1,435 | 1,660 | ||||||
Net Sbscriber Increase | 286 | 307 | 225 | ||||||
Estimated Average Subscribers | 985 | 1,282 | 1,548 | ||||||
Growth in Subscribers | 34.0% | 27.2% | 15.7% | ||||||
ARPU (1) | 286 | 251 | 203 | ||||||
|
Monthly Stock Market Returns: | ||||
MSCI | ||||
Global | ||||
Date: | Peru | Chile | S&P | Index |
01/31/2012 | 12.71% | 7.37% | 4.52% | 5.02% |
02/29/2012 | 3.56% | 7.93% | 4.33% | 4.88% |
03/31/2012 | 3.89% | 1.27% | 3.29% | 1.29% |
04/30/2012 | -3.96% | -0.55% | -0.60% | -1.14% |
05/31/2012 | -7.41% | -10.94% | -5.98% | -8.63% |
06/30/2012 | -3.76% | 4.56% | 4.15% | 5.10% |
07/31/2012 | -2.74% | 0.62% | 1.44% | 1.29% |
08/31/2012 | 3.35% | -0.82% | 2.27% | 2.54% |
09/30/2012 | 6.71% | 3.06% | 2.51% | 2.75% |
10/31/2012 | -4.08% | 0.38% | -1.78% | -0.68% |
11/30/2012 | -3.58% | -2.77% | 0.52% | 1.28% |
12/31/2012 | 2.92% | 4.14% | 0.82% | 1.88% |
01/31/2013 | 3.91% | 6.88% | 5.22% | 5.09% |
02/28/2013 | -3.84% | -0.17% | 1.32% | 0.17% |
03/31/2013 | -3.65% | -2.04% | 3.75% | 2.34% |
Daily Yields: | |||
Peruvian | US | ||
30-Yr | 30-Yr | ||
Date: | Rate | Rate |
2/15/13 | 4.88% | 3.18% |
2/18/13 | 4.88% | 3.20% |
2/19/13 | 4.88% | 3.21% |
2/20/13 | 4.88% | 3.20% |
2/21/13 | 4.92% | 3.17% |
2/22/13 | 4.92% | 3.15% |
2/25/13 | 4.97% | 3.08% |
2/26/13 | 5.06% | 3.08% |
2/27/13 | 5.00% | 3.11% |
2/28/13 | 4.99% | 3.10% |
3/1/13 | 4.99% | 3.06% |
3/4/13 | 5.00% | 3.08% |
3/5/13 | 5.01% | 3.10% |
3/6/13 | 5.03% | 3.15% |
3/7/13 | 5.04% | 3.20% |
3/8/13 | 5.10% | 3.25% |
3/11/13 | 5.16% | 3.26% |
3/12/13 | 5.10% | 3.22% |
3/13/13 | 5.10% | 3.22% |
3/14/13 | 5.08% | 3.25% |
3/15/13 | 5.02% | 3.22% |
3/18/13 | 5.03% | 3.18% |
3/19/13 | 5.05% | 3.13% |
3/20/13 | 5.07% | 3.19% |
3/21/13 | 5.07% | 3.15% |
3/22/13 | 5.07% | 3.13% |
3/25/13 | 5.06% | 3.14% |
3/26/13 | 5.06% | 3.13% |
3/27/13 | 5.06% | 3.09% |
3/28/13 | 5.06% | 3.10% |
3/29/13 | 5.06% | 3.09% |
4/1/13 | 5.05% | 3.08% |
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