1. In class, we learned that we could access the impact of a macro indicator by running a regression of the appropriate measure of stock market returns on the appropriate measure of the surprise contained in the announcement of the macro indicator.
- Using the posted spreadsheet (HW5_macroanalysis_template), how exactly would you measure a surprise in nonfarm payrolls? Please highlight the corresponding cells in your spreadsheet. What kind of indicator is nonfarm payrolls? (0.5)
Date Period DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Time (UTC-04:00) 1/8/16 8:30 AM 2/5/16 8:30 AM 3/4/16 8:30 AM 4/1/16 8:30 AM 5/6/16 8:30 AM 6/3/16 8:30 AM 7/8/16 8:30 AM 8/5/16 8:30 AM 9/2/16 8:30 AM 10/7/16 8:30 AM 11/4/16 8:30 AM 12/2/16 8:30 AM 1/6/17 8:30 AM 2/3/17 8:30 AM 3/10/17 8:30 AM 4/7/17 8:30 AM 5/5/17 8:30 AM 6/2/17 8:30 AM 7/7/17 8:30 AM 8/4/17 8:30 AM 9/1/17 8:30 AM 1016/17 8:30 AM 11/3/17 8:30 AM 12/8/17 8:30 AM 1/5/18 8:30 AM 2/2/18 8:30 AM 3/9/18 8:30 AM 4/6/18 8:30 AM 5/4/18 8:30 AM 6/1/18 8:30 AM 7/6/18 8:30 AM 8/3/18 8:30 AM 9/7/18 8:30 AM 10/5/18 8:30 AM 11/2/18 8:30 AM 12/7/18 8:30 AM 1/4/19 8:30 AM 2/1/19 8:30 AM 3/8/19 8:30 AM 4/5/19 8:30 AM 5/3/19 8:30 AM 6/7/19 8:30 AM 7/5/19 8:30 AM 8/2/19 8:30 AM 9/6/19 8:30 AM 10/4/19 8:30 AM 11/1/19 8:30 AM 12/6/19 8:30 AM Country United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States Event Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Importance High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN Actual 292.OK 151.OK 242.0K 215.OK 160.OK 38.OK 287.OK 255.OK 151.OK 156.OK 161.OK 178.OK 156.OK 227.OK 235.OK 98.OK 211.OK 138.0K 222.OK 209.OK 156.OK 33.OK 261.OK 228.OK 149.0K 200.OK 313.OK 103.OK 164.OK 223.OK 213.0K 157.OK 201.OK 134.OK 250.OK 155.OK 312.0K 304.OK 20.OK 196.OK 263.OK 75.OK 224.OK 164.OK 130.0K 136.OK 128.0K 268.0K Consensus 200.OK 190.OK 195.OK 200.OK 200.OK 160.OK 180.OK 175.0K 182.5K 175.OK 174.OK 173.5K 175.OK 175.OK 188.OK 180.OK 185.OK 180.OK 177.OK 180.OK 180.OK 85.OK 310.OK 192.5K 189.0K 175.OK 200.OK 185.0K 191.OK 190.OK 195.OK 192.OK 189.OK 185.OK 193.OK 195.OK 180.OK 165.OK 180.OK 175.OK 181.OK 180.OK 161.5K 164.OK 160.0K 140.OK 90.OK 184.OK Surprise 92.OK 39.0K 47.OK 15.OK -40.OK -122.OK 107.OK 80.OK -31.5K -19.OK -13.OK 4.5K - 19.0K 52.OK 47.OK -82.OK 26.OK -42.OK 45.OK 29.OK -24.OK - 118.DK -49.OK 35.5K -41.OK 25.OK 113.OK -82.OK -27.OK 33.OK 18.OK -35.OK 12.OK -51.OK 57.OK -40.OK 132.OK 139.OK - 160.OK 21.OK 82.OK -105.OK 62.5K 0.OK 30.OK -4.OK 38.0K 82.OK Prior 252.OK 262.OK 172.0K 245.0K 208.OK 123.OK 11.OK 292.OK 275.OK 167.OK 191.OK 142.OK 204.OK 157.OK 238.OK 219.0K 79.OK 174.OK 152.OK 231.OK 189.OK 169.0K 18.OK 244.OK 252.OK 160.OK 239.0K 326.0K 135.OK 159.OK 244.OK 248.OK 147.OK 270.OK 118.DK 237.OK 176.OK 222.OK 311.OK 33.OK 189.OK 224.OK 72.OK 193.OK 159.OK 168.OK 180.OK 156.OK FEB High High High High High High MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL High High High High High High High High High High High High AUG SEP OCT NOV Date Period DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Time (UTC-04:00) 1/8/16 8:30 AM 2/5/16 8:30 AM 3/4/16 8:30 AM 4/1/16 8:30 AM 5/6/16 8:30 AM 6/3/16 8:30 AM 7/8/16 8:30 AM 8/5/16 8:30 AM 9/2/16 8:30 AM 10/7/16 8:30 AM 11/4/16 8:30 AM 12/2/16 8:30 AM 1/6/17 8:30 AM 2/3/17 8:30 AM 3/10/17 8:30 AM 4/7/17 8:30 AM 5/5/17 8:30 AM 6/2/17 8:30 AM 7/7/17 8:30 AM 8/4/17 8:30 AM 9/1/17 8:30 AM 1016/17 8:30 AM 11/3/17 8:30 AM 12/8/17 8:30 AM 1/5/18 8:30 AM 2/2/18 8:30 AM 3/9/18 8:30 AM 4/6/18 8:30 AM 5/4/18 8:30 AM 6/1/18 8:30 AM 7/6/18 8:30 AM 8/3/18 8:30 AM 9/7/18 8:30 AM 10/5/18 8:30 AM 11/2/18 8:30 AM 12/7/18 8:30 AM 1/4/19 8:30 AM 2/1/19 8:30 AM 3/8/19 8:30 AM 4/5/19 8:30 AM 5/3/19 8:30 AM 6/7/19 8:30 AM 7/5/19 8:30 AM 8/2/19 8:30 AM 9/6/19 8:30 AM 10/4/19 8:30 AM 11/1/19 8:30 AM 12/6/19 8:30 AM Country United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States United States Event Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Nonfarm Payrolls SA Importance High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High High JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN Actual 292.OK 151.OK 242.0K 215.OK 160.OK 38.OK 287.OK 255.OK 151.OK 156.OK 161.OK 178.OK 156.OK 227.OK 235.OK 98.OK 211.OK 138.0K 222.OK 209.OK 156.OK 33.OK 261.OK 228.OK 149.0K 200.OK 313.OK 103.OK 164.OK 223.OK 213.0K 157.OK 201.OK 134.OK 250.OK 155.OK 312.0K 304.OK 20.OK 196.OK 263.OK 75.OK 224.OK 164.OK 130.0K 136.OK 128.0K 268.0K Consensus 200.OK 190.OK 195.OK 200.OK 200.OK 160.OK 180.OK 175.0K 182.5K 175.OK 174.OK 173.5K 175.OK 175.OK 188.OK 180.OK 185.OK 180.OK 177.OK 180.OK 180.OK 85.OK 310.OK 192.5K 189.0K 175.OK 200.OK 185.0K 191.OK 190.OK 195.OK 192.OK 189.OK 185.OK 193.OK 195.OK 180.OK 165.OK 180.OK 175.OK 181.OK 180.OK 161.5K 164.OK 160.0K 140.OK 90.OK 184.OK Surprise 92.OK 39.0K 47.OK 15.OK -40.OK -122.OK 107.OK 80.OK -31.5K -19.OK -13.OK 4.5K - 19.0K 52.OK 47.OK -82.OK 26.OK -42.OK 45.OK 29.OK -24.OK - 118.DK -49.OK 35.5K -41.OK 25.OK 113.OK -82.OK -27.OK 33.OK 18.OK -35.OK 12.OK -51.OK 57.OK -40.OK 132.OK 139.OK - 160.OK 21.OK 82.OK -105.OK 62.5K 0.OK 30.OK -4.OK 38.0K 82.OK Prior 252.OK 262.OK 172.0K 245.0K 208.OK 123.OK 11.OK 292.OK 275.OK 167.OK 191.OK 142.OK 204.OK 157.OK 238.OK 219.0K 79.OK 174.OK 152.OK 231.OK 189.OK 169.0K 18.OK 244.OK 252.OK 160.OK 239.0K 326.0K 135.OK 159.OK 244.OK 248.OK 147.OK 270.OK 118.DK 237.OK 176.OK 222.OK 311.OK 33.OK 189.OK 224.OK 72.OK 193.OK 159.OK 168.OK 180.OK 156.OK FEB High High High High High High MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL High High High High High High High High High High High High AUG SEP OCT NOV
