Question
1. in part 1 using a Weighted Moving Average Forecast, what is the Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) if weights of 0.1, 0.6, 0.3 are used,
1. in part 1 using a Weighted Moving Average Forecast, what is the Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) if weights of 0.1, 0.6, 0.3 are used, applying 0.1 to the most recent demand period?
2. In part 1, using an Exponential Smoothing Forecast, what is the MAPE if an alpha of 0.4 is used?
3. we used solver to determine the best weights for the Weighted Moving Average Forecast and the best alpha for the Exponential Smoothing Forecast. Comparing these two forecasts using the best weights and best alpha, the _____________ yielded the most accurate forecast based on MAPE, while the___________ was second best. However, we are unsure how the ___________ would have faired because we calculated the error term using MAD not MAPE. If we compare the Weighted Moving Average Forecast while using the best weights and the Exponential Smoothing Forecast while using the best alpha, and compare the two by the Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE), we would conclude that the _________ is a more accurate forecast than _______
Fill in the blank options:(Naive Forecast TrendAdjusted Exponential Smoothing Forecast Exponential Smoothing Forecast Simple Moving Average Forecast Weighted Moving Average Forecast)
4. Using a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing forecast in part 2, what is the MAD using forecasts between Dec. 12 and Jan. 9, and using an alpha of 0.31 and a beta of 0.88?
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