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1. Monthly indicators (25 points). The purpose of this question is to try out some of the tools we've developed to understand the cyclical behavior

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1. Monthly indicators (25 points). The purpose of this question is to try out some of the tools we've developed to understand the cyclical behavior of economic indicators. Using FRED (either online or from an Excel add-in), download the monthly data for the following variables (FRED data codes in parentheses): . Industrial production (INDPRO, 1960MI-2015M12) . Nonfarm employment (PAYEMS, 1960M1-2015M12) . Housing starts (HOUSTI960M1-2015M12) . Real retail sales (RRSPS, 1992M1-2015M12) . S&P 500 stock market index (1960M1-2015M12) The historic S&P 500 data are no longer available on FRED. They can be found in the workbook sp500_data. xlax. Calculate the continuously-compounded annual growth rates as 72 = (In I, - In It_12) * 100. a. Using these growth rates, complete the following table. (15 points) Correlation with: Mean Standard Deviation I INDPRO, INDPRO, 6 INDPRO,6 Industrial Production Nonfarm Employment Housing Starts Real Retail Sales S&P 500 Index b. Which variables are leading indicators? Which are lagging indicators? (10 points)

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