1 t 0 7 t 1 0 1 t 2 t Want to make forecasts of for the future periods 301 through 304 Using the AR(1) regression in Table 1 as well as the recent data seen in Table 2, make iterated multi step forecasts up until 304 Explain the behavior of your forecasts as the forecast horizon increases Table 1 AR(1) Regression Output Source SS df MS Number of obs 299 F (1, 297) 26 34 11 1I Model 26 0252874 1 26 0252874 Prob F 0 0000 Residual 293 472422 297 988122633 R squared 0 0815 Adj R squared 0 0784 Total 319 497709 298 1 07213996 Root MSE 99404 X Coef Std Err t P ItI 95 Conf Interval X L1 0 286 0 056 5 13 0 000 0 177 0 396 cons 0 940 0 094 10 05 0 000 0 756 1 124 Table 2 Data Excerpt X 296 1 192 297 1 342 298 0 380 299 1 945 300 0 164

Question

1  t   0 7 t 1 0 1 t 2   t Want to make forecasts of for the future periods   301 through   304  Using the AR(1) regression in Table 1 as well as the recent data seen in Table 2, make iterated multi step forecasts up until   304  Explain the behavior of your forecasts as the forecast horizon increases  Table 1  AR(1) Regression Output Source   SS df MS Number of obs   299 F (1, 297) 26 34 11 1I Model   26   0252874 1 26   0252874 Prob   F 0   0000 Residual   293   472422 297   988122633 R squared   0   0815 Adj R squared   0   0784 Total   319  497709 298 1  07213996 Root MSE     99404 X Coef  Std  Err  t P ItI  95  Conf  Interval      X L1   0   286 0   056 5  13 0  000 0  177 0  396 cons 0   940 0   094 10  05 0   000 0   756 1   124 Table 2  Data Excerpt X 296 1 192 297 1 342 298 0 380 299 1 945 300  0 164

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1. t = 0.7 t-1 0.1 t-2 + t Want to make forecasts of for the future periods = 301 through = 304. Using the

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