1 What is risk? 8 A construction project requires five major pieces of work to be completed which are independent. These five paths have variances as given in Table 10.10. Determine the probability that the project will be completed within: (a) 18 weeks. (b) 16 weeks. (c) 13 weeks. 2 Why should risk be a fundamental part of the consideration of a project manager? 3 Which other stakeholders would have an interest in the level of risk that a project presents? 4 When would a quantitative approach be appropriate and when would you use a qualitative approach to risk assessment? Table 10.10 5 What are the benefits and limitations of the quantitative and qualitative approaches to risk Expected duration (weeks) Path Variance assessment? A 10 1.21 6 Is risk assessment the same as risk management? 8 2.00 12 1.00 7 Considering the critical path alone for the project in Table 10.9, calculate the activity variances and the total variance of the critical path. From this, calculate the standard deviation. Determine the probability of the project being completed within the following D 15 2.89 E 14 1.44 9 You are in charge of a new product launch. This will be a formal press launch, where the product is introduced by your managing director and the press and major customers have the opportunity to see the product for the first time. The formalities are to be preceded by a buffet. Before hiring the catering service it is necessary to identify the guest list and invite them to determine numbers. Because of tied arrangements between certain venues and the caterers, you will have to times: (a) 30 days. (b) 40 days. (c) 42 days. Table 10.9 Activity Optimistic time Most likely Pessimistic time time 3 4 11 select the venue, then select the caterers. The launch 1 publicity materials will need to be designed, and artwork carried out before brochures can be printed. These must be available on the day. The promotional boards to be placed around the launch room should C 10 11 8 10 18 E 1 3 F 1 3 3 4 be constructed once the publicity materials have been designed. No artwork is required for these. A sound system is required and must be hired 2 2 10 J 16 20 30 K 1 1 once the venue has been identified. Table 10.11 Activity Description Optimistic time Most likely Pessimistic time Select launch venue 1 3 Design launch publicity Have artwork prepared 2 3 4 3 D Print brochures 1 4 Construct promotion stand Order sound system E 1 2 0.5 1.5 Select caterers 1 3 Develop invite list Invite and get replies H 1 1 1 J 2 3 The activities are included in Table 10.11, together 10 Choose a project with which you are familiar. For that project, identify the opportunities that such a project presents for performance or outcome over and above what has been expected or with the best estimates for optimistic, pessimistic and most likely times. The MD has asked you to set the launch date (all times are in weeks). Show the criteria that you have used, and include the network diagram. required.