$1.$ What is the purpose of forecasting?

$2.$ What is the risk of JUST using past data to make decisions?

$3.$ What is the simple average for sales by day for the following scenario:

Day Sales

$110$

$215$

$320$

$415$

$520$

$4.$ Fed Ex shipments out of a specific location differ by each day. The location manager needs to determine how many drivers to put on the schedule for Tuesday. The manager has the cumulative $\%$ of how many times they needed a certain # of drivers for the past $20$ years on Tuesdays. Based on the data, how many drivers should the manager schedule next Tuesday to guarantee that at least half of the deliveries will be made on that Tuesday?

Cumulative $\%$ of when that

# of drivers # was needed in the past

needed $20$ years

$15\%$

$215\%$

$350\%$

$480\%$

$5100\%$

$5.$ Daily sales data for a certain item is given below. Calculate the $5$ day moving average on day $6$ and then on day $7$

Day Sales

$180$

$220$

$330$

$410$

$510$

$610$

$720$

$6.$ From the data in question #$5,$ assuming that the sales for day #$1$ were not typical, which method, simple average for days $1$ through $6$ or the $5$ day moving average as of day $7$ would be a more accurate method of forecasting and why?

$7.$ Total sales for an item in $2020$ was $15,000$ units. Assuming $5\%$ inflation for $2021$ with the potential of a $3\%$ increase in demand, what is the na$$ve sales forecast for $2021?$

$8.$ A potato chip manufacturer has been using a specific forecasting method for the past $3$ years to forecast how many potato chips it needs to produce each month. The quantity that was forecasted and the actual quantity that was produced in the month of April are given below. In general, what should the company do in terms of using this forecast method for the next round of hold out data.

April April

Year Forecast Actual

$2018100,000103,000$

$2019105,000102,000$

$2020102,000104,000$

$9.$ Now let$$s say that the potato chip manufacturer has been using a specific forecasting method for the past $3$ years to forecast how many potato chips it needs to produce each month. The quantity that was forecasted and the actual quantity that was produced in the month of April are given below. Determine the bias that is somehow in their forecasting method

April April

Year Forecast Actual

$2018100,000103,000$

$2019105,000108,000$

$2020102,000105,000$