11. With no other information than the graph below, explain: What this indicator does? What are the advantages/disadvantages? What would you do differently? FRED - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 10 Percentage Points O - NW 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12000 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: Sahm, Claudia fred.stlouisfed.org Share Links of Account Tools & in NOTES Source: Sahm, Claudia Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Units: Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise. Suggested Citation: Sahm, Claudia, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME, May 12, 2023