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1/25/22,1:10AM Assignment 0 possibly-unfair coin.) What is your expectation about what the probability of heads will be, and how strongly do you think so? -
1/25/22,1:10AM Assignment 0 possibly-unfair coin.) What is your expectation about what the probability of heads will be, and how strongly do you think so? - (b) Let's take the notion of "expectation" in (4a) a little more literally, as in expected value, also known as the mean of the distribution. Try typing BetaDistribution [,] for some other values of and , and look at the number Wolfram Alpha reports as the "mean". Can you figure out what the formula for the mean is, as a function of and ? (If you can't give an exact formula, at least comment on some properties of the mean. If you already knew the formula, it's ok to tell us so. But don't just look up the mean of the Beta distribution and copy it down; what would you learn from that?!) For refreshers on some of the material in this question, there's some nice content in Manning \& Schuetze Section 2.1, on foundational concepts in probability theory, particularly the binomial distribution (Section 2.1.9) and the Bayesian updating example using coin flips (Section 2.1.10). (Christopher D. Manning and Hinrich Schuetze, Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing, published in 1999, is still a nice resource for many key concepts in NLP, even though the text we're using is more current. You can an online copy here.) Although not strictly necessary for this question this discussion of conjugate priors in Bayesian probability and particularly the example will make answering this question more worthwhile. Please don't forget to tell us approximately how much time you spent on this
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