1.Which are the

(a) scenarios,

(b) strategies,

in the decision situation depicted in the decision tree in Figure 2?

2.Below are some statements that may or may not show biases. Where there is sign of bias, what would you call the type of bias? There may be more than one reasonable answer to any item, give as many as you can.

(a) "I heard that someone found a toe nail in a jar of orange jam, so I don't want any jam. Toe nails in my food are disgusting!"

(b) "Smoking is not that dangerous, my aunt lived until she was 92 and she smoked 30 cigarettes a day since she was 12." (c) "The flu season has started and he has a runny nose, I had better keep some distance so I don't catch anything."

(d) "I have been driving drunk for twenty years and nothing has happened, I can handle it!"

(e) "Now my team has lost five times in a row, they'll surely win next time, I mean it's very unlikely that they'd lose six times in a row."

3.A decision analyst A assists a decision maker M in eliciting M:s utility function for values between 10 and 40 with the trade-off method.

The following dialogue takes place:

A: What is x1 such that (10, 0.2; 5, 0.8) (x1, 0.2, 2, 0.8) for you?

M: x1 = 21.

A: What is x2 such that (21, 0.2; 5, 0.8) (x2, 0.2, 2, 0.8)?

M: x2 = 24.

A: What is x3 such that (24, 0.2; 5, 0.8) (x3, 0.2, 2, 0.8)?

M: x3 = 32.

A: What is x4 such that (32, 0.2; 5, 0.8) (x4, 0.2, 2, 0.8)?

M: x4 = 42.

A: Thank you! I'll go and crunch your numbers and get back to you with your utility function.

What are the normalised utility function values u(10), u(21), u(24), u(32) and u(42)?

0.5 43 0.4 0.5 1 0.7 12 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 43 0.2 0.6 43 1 0.2 0.4 42 0.8 0.6 4 Figure 1: Event tree for Problem 2.C 1 20 8 0.1 H 0.8 A 0.5 D M 0.2 10 E 8 15 F 0.8 N B 0.6 14 K 0.2 G 4 O 0.4 47 Figure 2: Decision tree for Problems 3 and 6