2. Calculating Expected Time Durations PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique) Building on WBS, determine time duration for each task. PERT uses optimistic, pessimistic and realistic time estimates to calculate expected time for a particular task ET = Expected time for completion * 0 = optimistic time (minimum) r = realistic time (best guess) ET = * p = pessimistic time (maximum) Because ET should be closest to (], it is weighted x4 more than (o) and (p) times * Divide by 6 to determine the ET Example - Proposal Completion 0+4r+p 6 You are given a course assignment, a nice exercise might be to calculate expected completion time Ms\";& ET =567 Example: IKEA Management requested a new Sales Promotion Tracking System (SPTS) Project team given 24 weeks to develop and implement -need to decide on timeline feasibility Project Manager identified following major activities for project: Requirements collection Screen design Report design Database construction User documentation creation Software programming Systemn testing Systemn installation Example: IKEA "1 Requirements Collection 1 2. Screen Design 3. Report Design 4, Database Design 5. User Documentation 6. Programming 7. Testing 8. Installabion Example: IKEA Once completed? Determine sequence of activities and precedence relationships Helps you understand how various activities are related Start by determining the order in which activities should take place Example: Screen Design must come after Requirements Collection, and Testing must come after Programming First? Determine time estimates and calculate expected completion time for each activity Useful for developing a Gantt chart 1 Requirements Collection 2.Screen Design 3 Report Design 4 Database Design 5 User Documentation B. Programming 7. Testing 8. Installation Slide 9 of 36 Example: IKEA Develop a network diagram Screen Design User Documentation @ Database @ - Installation Design Requirements Collection Report Design @ @ Tasting Programming Y Example: IKEA Earliest completion time (T) Earliest possible time that a particular activity or task within a project can be completed. Crucial in project scheduling. Start at the project's beginning, and work forward through the network diagram, considering task duration, and dependencies. Achieved by summing the period of each activity from left to right. The earliest completion time for a task is the earliest time it can be finished without delaying the project. A2 L e ST E e What's the earliest we can Te=1 get the project wrapped up? Earliest completion time Te=9 for this project, is 22 weeks, Once we have this in mind, we can see what flexibility we have towards certain activities - and find the critical path! ET=5 Example: IKEA- Latest Expected Time Latest expected time (T,) Refers to time in which an activity can be completed without delaying the project. Particularly important to identify tasks that can be delayed, without affecting the project's final deadline. Helps project managers understand the flexibility associated to non-critical tasks in the project schedule, Understanding latest expected time for tasks is crucial for managing project schedules and ensuring that the project is delivered on time. Example: IKEA- Latest Expected Time Start at Activity 8, andsetT equalto Te=d final T (22 weeks). T.=5 To find values for each activity's T;, start at last activity, and work backright ET=5 to left and subtract each ET for each activity. Example: IKEA- Critical Path? Slack Time Equal to difference between latest and earliest expected Tl completion times (T, - T;) E- Al activities wath a slack time T=5 equal to zero are on the . critical path Finally, establish critical path Represents the shortest timein ET=5 which a project can be completed Also helps identify the sequence of connected activities that produce the longest overall period ET=8 ET=3 Critical Path + Non-Critical Path 3. Problem Analysis Approaches Problem Analysis Approaches [T (T Building the foundation for Harnessing the energy of ~ freshideas by unearthing the team, clearly defining ~ unmet customer needs your challenge, and setting and using them to create your project up for success. opportunity areas for Tools: Kepner-Tregoe Method and Six Serving Men Milestone: A clearly defined challenge, with team buy in. ideation. Tools: Empathy Mapping Milestone: Inspiration for ideation. (e[g 1] [ te )] Growing fresh ideas through collaborationand ~ Ranking ideas, gathering by using stimulus to help ~ momentum for action and people break out of designing next steps. patterned ways of thinking Tools: Reversal Tools: Wildest Idea Game Winner's Circle Milestone: Top ideas prioritised and next steps are clear and actioned. Milestone: Several impactful ideas have been developed. Kepner-Tregoe Method - Problem Solving and Solution Building Know Phase Situation Appraisal - Areas of concern or opportunity? - How complex are they. or what dependencies might they have? - What level of priority do they have? - Where do you start with each one? Decision Analysis - Why are you making this decision? - What objectives should you consider? - What are the other alternatives? ~What could go wrong with the alternatives? Problem Analysis - Cause of problem? - How would you describe the problem? - Possible causes? ~What causes are most probable? Potential Problem Analysis - What could go wrong? How can you mitigate? How can you minimize effects? How will you monitor/evaluate Use \"Six Serving Men\" Slide 19 of 36 Based on a poem by Rudyard Kipling: "I keep six honest serving men, they taught me all | knew, Their names are What and Why and When and How and Where and Who.\" Example: \"We need to improve innovation!\" What products/services need innovation? ~ Why is innovation needed? When should we aim for developments? Where should we focus innovation efforts? Often, there is a lack of input/insights from key stakeholders/customers This phase involves: Gathering clues to help broaden teams' perspective on the opportunities for innovation Using the insights gathered to create opportunity statements to bring forward the grow phase What are the top pain points? How can we successfully measure the effects of innovation? Who is responsible for establishing/driving a culture of innovation? Empathy Map Canvas WHO are we smpathizing with? What do they SEE? What do they HEAR? What do they SAY? Whst do they DO? Grow Phase - Wildest Idea Game | Imagine an Al driven Innovation Catalyst - what would that look like? The Winner's Circle Ease of implementation Action Phase - Map potential solutions to the Winner's Circle. - Which looks most attractive