2. Consider a game of bridge. Assume that West has exactly one ace. What is the conditional probability that his partner (East) has no ace? (8.) 0.2532 (b) 0.4073 (c) 0.2845 ((21) 0.1818 (e) none of the above 4. Suppose that a free medical test for a certain disease is available. This test is 90% reliable in the following sense: If a person has the disease, there is a probability of 0.9 that the test will correctly indicate that the person has the disease (a true positive); whereas, if a person does not have the disease, there is a probability of 0.1 that the test will incorrectly indicate that the person has the disease (a false positive). In addition, suppose that this disease is rare in the sense that there is only a 1 in 10,000 chance that you have the disease. Suppose that, on a whim, you decide to take the test and when the results come back the test indicates that you have the disease! With this additional information how much does the probability that you actually have the disease increase? (a) 1/10008 (b) 9/10000 (c) 9/10008 (d) 1/10000 (e) None of the above 14. One out of seven residents living in a drought affected area in eastern Africa suffers from slow arsenic poisoning. A health survey team takes a random sample of 15 adults from the above mentioned area. What is the probability that more than 2 suffer from slow poisoning? (a) 0.0177 (b) 0.3645 (1:) 0.0182 (d) 0.0142 (e) none of the above