2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table.

Year	Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)
1	15
2	13
3	12
4	10
5	9
6	9
7	12
8	14
9	10
10	15
11	12

You may use Excel QM to:

1. Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales in year 12.

Answer:

Explanation (include software output or calculation):

1. Develop a three-year weighted average to predict demand in year 12, in which sales in the most recent year is given a weight of 4, the second most recent year is weighted 2 and sales in the third most recent year has a weight of 1.

Answer:

Explanation (include software output or calculation):

1. Develop a regression/trend line to estimate the demand for fertilizer in year 12.

Answer:

Explanation (include software output or calculation):

1. Analysis of the forecasting errors indicates which forecasting method (moving average, weighted moving average or regression) is best in this situation?Answer:

Explanation:

3. Kaplan College has decided to "wire" its campus. The first stage in this effort is to install the "backbone," i.e., to connect all the buildings. The table below gives the distances between the various buildings on campus in hundreds of feet.

You may use QM for Windows or complete it by hand:

Distances in Hundreds of Feet
From	To
	Building 1	Building 2	Building 3	Building 4	Building 5	Building 6
Building 1		25	22	10	12	15
Building 2			18	12	9	16
Building 3				12	23	24
Building 4					20	27
Building 5						19
Building 6

1. How should the buildings be connected to minimize the total length of cable?

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

1. What length of cable is required?

4. The following represents the distances in miles from a warehouse (node 1) to various cities in Montana. The major outlet store is located at node 7.

From Node	To Node	Distance
1	2	500
1	4	250
2	3	200
2	4	120
3	4	50
3	5	75
3	6	350
4	5	500
4	7	200
5	6	245
5	7	375
6	7	400

You may use QM for Windows or complete it by hand:

1. Find the shortest route and distance from Node 1 to Node 7.

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

5. The network of a city sewer system and their capacities are shown below. Remember that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity. For example, row 1 is the flow from node 1 to node 2 and row 2 is the reverse flow from node 2 to node 1. There are seven branches in this network.

From Node	To Node	Fluid Flow
1	2	50
2	1	20
1	3	75
3	1	100
1	4	125
4	1	75
1	5	25
5	1	15
2	4	50
4	2	75
3	4	100
4	3	45
3	5	35
5	3	25

You may use QM for Windows or complete it by hand:

1. Determine the maximum flow (in hundreds of gallons of water per minute) from node 1 to node 5.

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

6. The governor of Michigan believes that the state can improve the states poverty rate if the state can reduce the college debt carried by its citizens and if they can reduce the percent of the population not covered by health insurance. (This requires you to use the States Dataset file that is included in Doc Sharing->Instructor Graded Projects.)

1. Using the States Data Set and Excel DataAnalysis (Regression), create the multiple regression prediction equation of the form = b₀ + b₁(X₁) + b₂(X₂)

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

1. Predict the poverty rate for Michigan if the college debt was $30,000 and the percent not covered by insurance was 10% or 10?

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

7. A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decisions) and states of nature (size of crowd).

Stocking Decision	Large Crowd ($)	Average Crowd ($)	Small Crowd ($)
Large Inventory	$15,000	$12,000	-$1,000
Average Inventory	$12,500	$25,000	$7,500
Small Inventory	$4,000	$3,000	$2,500

You may use Excel QM or QM for Windows:

If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.20 for a large crowd, 0.25 for an average crowd, and 0.55 for a small crowd, determine:

1. The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):

1. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

Answer:

Explanation (including any calculations or software output):