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2 Green Party It's cloction scason, and the chosen president may or may not be the Green Party candidate. Pundits believe that Cron Party Presidents
2 Green Party It's cloction scason, and the chosen president may or may not be the Green Party candidate. Pundits believe that Cron Party Presidents are more likely to legalize marijuana lan candidates from other parties, but legalization could occur under any administration. Armed with the power of probability, the analysts model the situation with the Baves Ver below. (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana P(+ 9) +g P(g) 0.25 -8 0.75 +g 0.8 P(-mg) 0.2 0.9 0.1 We can make better inferenco il we b e more evidence. Now we are going to expand on the model (Bayes net) by introducing two new random variables whiculicr the budget is belanca (B), and whether class attendance increases (C). The expanded Bayes net and conditional distributions are shown below, (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana (B)alanced Budget (C)lass attendance P(+5m) 0.3 0.2 P(-m) 0.7 +m -m +in -m Pl+cm) 0.2 0.5 P-cm) 0.8 0.5 0.8 5. Now, wld a todo Sluche Bancs telthal rollects the possibility that a new scientific study could inllucix the probability that marijuana is legalizel. Assume that the study does not directly induce Bor Draw the new Bayes net below. Which CPT or CPTs need to be modified? (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana (B)alanced Budget (C)lass attendance 6. Consider your augmented model. Just based on the structure, which of the following are guaranteed to be true, and which are guaranteed to be false? (a) BIG (b) BIC (c) C1GM (d) BICC (e) GIS 2 Green Party It's cloction scason, and the chosen president may or may not be the Green Party candidate. Pundits believe that Cron Party Presidents are more likely to legalize marijuana lan candidates from other parties, but legalization could occur under any administration. Armed with the power of probability, the analysts model the situation with the Baves Ver below. (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana P(+ 9) +g P(g) 0.25 -8 0.75 +g 0.8 P(-mg) 0.2 0.9 0.1 We can make better inferenco il we b e more evidence. Now we are going to expand on the model (Bayes net) by introducing two new random variables whiculicr the budget is belanca (B), and whether class attendance increases (C). The expanded Bayes net and conditional distributions are shown below, (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana (B)alanced Budget (C)lass attendance P(+5m) 0.3 0.2 P(-m) 0.7 +m -m +in -m Pl+cm) 0.2 0.5 P-cm) 0.8 0.5 0.8 5. Now, wld a todo Sluche Bancs telthal rollects the possibility that a new scientific study could inllucix the probability that marijuana is legalizel. Assume that the study does not directly induce Bor Draw the new Bayes net below. Which CPT or CPTs need to be modified? (G)reen party president Legalize (M)arijuana (B)alanced Budget (C)lass attendance 6. Consider your augmented model. Just based on the structure, which of the following are guaranteed to be true, and which are guaranteed to be false? (a) BIG (b) BIC (c) C1GM (d) BICC (e) GIS
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