2. Here you need to show your familiarity with the exponential smoothing forecast calculations, and the calculation of MAE. The first four data points were separated from the rest of the time series. Pretend this is now the only sample you have available (Y1 = 1.34, Y2 = 1.5, Y3 = 1.48, Y4 = 1.78).

(i) Show process of calculating F3+1, F4+1, and F4+3 for the reduced time series of Y1, Y2, Y3, and Y4, using the Expon. Smooth. with alpha = 0.6

(ii) Show how you would calculate MAE for the reduced sample shown above when using the 3-period moving average forecasts you calculated in part (i).

t=1

t=2

t=3

1.34

1.5

1.48

1.78

1.59

1.5

1.42

1.85

1.77

1.52

1.42

1.41

1.58

1.31

1.55

1.39

1.45

1.74

1.68

1.38

1.45

1.43

1.43

1.48

2. Here you need to show your familiarity with the exponential smoothing forecast calculations, and the calculation of MAE. The first four data points were separated from the rest of the time series. Pretend this is now the only sample you have available (Y1 = 1.34, Y2 = 1.5, Y3 = 1.48, Y4 = 1.78). (i) Show process of calculating F3+1, F4+1, and F4+3 for the reduced time series of Y1, Y2, Y3, and Y4, using the Expen. Smooth. with alpha = 0.6 (ii) Show how you would calculate MAE for the reduced sample shown above when using the 3-period moving average forecasts you calculated in part (1) This is the time series: Copy and paste the values into your template (you can copy all the column as one selection. Don't copy the 't' column) t-2 t=3 1.34 1.5 1.48 1.78 1.59 1.5 1.42 1.85 1.77 1.52 1.42 1.41 1.58 1.31 1.55 1.39 1.45 1.74 1.68 1.38 1.45 1.43 1.43 1.48 2. Here you need to show your familiarity with the exponential smoothing forecast calculations, and the calculation of MAE. The first four data points were separated from the rest of the time series. Pretend this is now the only sample you have available (Y1 = 1.34, Y2 = 1.5, Y3 = 1.48, Y4 = 1.78). (i) Show process of calculating F3+1, F4+1, and F4+3 for the reduced time series of Y1, Y2, Y3, and Y4, using the Expen. Smooth. with alpha = 0.6 (ii) Show how you would calculate MAE for the reduced sample shown above when using the 3-period moving average forecasts you calculated in part (1) This is the time series: Copy and paste the values into your template (you can copy all the column as one selection. Don't copy the 't' column) t-2 t=3 1.34 1.5 1.48 1.78 1.59 1.5 1.42 1.85 1.77 1.52 1.42 1.41 1.58 1.31 1.55 1.39 1.45 1.74 1.68 1.38 1.45 1.43 1.43 1.48