2.2 A binary option pays off $150 if a stock price is greater than $40 in three months. The current stock price is $35 and its volatility is 35%. The risk-free rate is 4% and the expected return on the stock is 10%.

2.2.1 What is the value of the option? (6)

2.2.2 What is the real-world probability that the payoff will be received? (4)