23 8. ABC What is the standard deviation of the forecast (Sp) from the exponential smoothing method ) [after updates]? 9. What is the 90% confidence interval for the demand in week 9 ) [after updates]? (use z 95%=1.65) Week Exponential Forecast Error Abs. Error Abs. Error % Simple Moving Average (3) Forecast Error Abs. Error Abs. Error % Forecast Deliveries 200 200.00 1 2 0.00% 7% 214 14.00 14.00 3 211 5.40 5.40 3% 4 218 200.00 205.60 207.76 211.86 221.11 5% 9.67 4% 10.24 23.14 10.24 23.14 208.33 214.33 9.67 20.67 5 235 10% 20.67 10.67 9% 5% 6 232 10.89 5% 7 210 225.47 10.89 (15.47) 30.72 7% 221.33 10.67 228.33 (18.33) 225.67 24.33 18.33 9% 10% 8 250 219.28 12% 24.33 15.47 30.72 MAD: 15.69 MAPE: MAPE: MAD: 16.73 7% 7% 23 8. ABC What is the standard deviation of the forecast (Sp) from the exponential smoothing method ) [after updates]? 9. What is the 90% confidence interval for the demand in week 9 ) [after updates]? (use z 95%=1.65) Week Exponential Forecast Error Abs. Error Abs. Error % Simple Moving Average (3) Forecast Error Abs. Error Abs. Error % Forecast Deliveries 200 200.00 1 2 0.00% 7% 214 14.00 14.00 3 211 5.40 5.40 3% 4 218 200.00 205.60 207.76 211.86 221.11 5% 9.67 4% 10.24 23.14 10.24 23.14 208.33 214.33 9.67 20.67 5 235 10% 20.67 10.67 9% 5% 6 232 10.89 5% 7 210 225.47 10.89 (15.47) 30.72 7% 221.33 10.67 228.33 (18.33) 225.67 24.33 18.33 9% 10% 8 250 219.28 12% 24.33 15.47 30.72 MAD: 15.69 MAPE: MAPE: MAD: 16.73 7% 7%